TY  - JOUR
AB  - OBJECTIVES: To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. METHODS: All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. RESULTS: Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units.
AD  - Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Institute of German Dentists, Universitatsstrasse 73, Cologne, Germany.
Department of Operative and Preventive Dentistry, Charite - Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
AN  - 26572962
AU  - Jäger, Ralf
AU  - van den Berg, Neeltje
AU  - Hoffmann, Wolfgang
AU  - Jordan, Rainer A.
AU  - Schwendicke, Falk
DA  - Nov 17
DO  - 10.1111/cdoe.12202
IS  - 2
KW  - access
dental services research
epidemiology
public health policy
L1  - internal-pdf://3050075017/J-ger_et_al-2016-Community_Dentistry_and_Oral_.pdf
N1  - Jager, Ralf
van den Berg, Neeltje
Hoffmann, Wolfgang
Jordan, Rainer A
Schwendicke, Falk
ENG
2015/11/18 06:00
Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2015 Nov 17. doi: 10.1111/cdoe.12202.
PY  - 2016
SE  - 17.11.2015
SN  - 1600-0528 (Electronic)
0301-5661 (Linking)
SP  - 169-179
ST  - Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany
T2  - Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology
TI  - Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany
UR  - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26572962
VL  - 44
ID  - 3100
ER  -