TY  - JOUR
AB  - OBJECTIVE: With more teeth retained for longer in an ageing population, population-wide periodontal treatment needs may increase. We assessed and projected periodontal treatment needs from 1997 to 2030 in Germany. 

METHODS: Partial-mouth probing-pocket depths (PPDs) from repeated waves (1997, 2005, 2014) of the nationally representative German Oral Health Studies were transformed into full-mouth PPDs via decision-tree-based ensemble-modelling. In line with German healthcare-regulations, teeth with PPD >/= 4 mm were regarded as needing periodontal treatment. Weighted means were interpolated cross-sectionally by fitting spline-curves and then regressed longitudinally 1997-2030. 

RESULTS: In 1997, younger adults (35-44 years old) had a mean of 7.4 teeth needing treatment (overall 93.8 million teeth); this decreased to 4.8 teeth (47.3 million teeth) in 2014. For 2030, we project 3.2 teeth (33.7 million teeth). In seniors, an increase was recorded (1997: 4.5 teeth, 33.5 million teeth; 2014: 7.5 teeth, 63.4 million teeth); this is expected to continue until 2030 (to 12.2 teeth, 140.8 million teeth). The cumulative number of teeth needing treatment increased from 2000 (355 million) to 2015 (365 million), and will increase further to 2030 (464 million). 

CONCLUSIONS: Population-wide periodontal treatment needs may increase until 2030, mainly in the elderly. Concepts for addressing, these growing needs are required.
AD  - Department of Operative and Preventive Dentistry, Charite - Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Department of Restorative Dentistry, Periodontology, Endodontology, and Preventive and Pediatric Dentistry, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Clinic for Periodontoloy, University of TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Institute of German Dentists (IDZ), Cologne, Germany.
AN  - 30299557
AU  - Schwendicke, Falk
AU  - Krois, Joachim
AU  - Kocher, Thomas
AU  - Hoffmann, Thomas
AU  - Micheelis, Wolfgang
AU  - Jordan, A. Rainer
DA  - Oct 9
DO  - 10.1111/jcpe.13020
IS  - 12
J2  - J Clin Periodontol
KW  - Cross-sectional study
Demography
Epidemiology
Health services research
Periodontitis
L1  - internal-pdf://2139170998/Schwendicke-2018-More teeth in more elderly_ P.pdf
N1  - Schwendicke, Falk
Krois, Joachim
Kocher, Thomas
Hoffmann, Thomas
Micheelis, Wolfgang
Jordan, Rainer A
eng
German Dental Association (Bundeszahnarztekammer - Arbeitsgemeinschaft der Deutschen Zahnarztekammern - (BZAK) e. V.)
National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Dentists (Kassenzahnarztliche Bundesvereinigung (KZBV) KdoR)
2018/10/10 06:00
J Clin Periodontol. 2018 Oct 9. doi: 10.1111/jcpe.13020.
PY  - 2018
SN  - 1600-051X (Electronic)
0303-6979 (Linking)
SP  - 1400-1407
ST  - More teeth in more elderly: Periodontal treatment needs in Germany 1997-2030
T2  - Journal of Clinical Periodontology
TI  - More teeth in more elderly: Periodontal treatment needs in Germany 1997-2030
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30299557
VL  - 45
ID  - 4793
ER  -