Reference Type:  Journal Article
Record Number: 5787
Author: Schwendicke, Falk, Nitschke, Ina, Stark, Helmut, Micheelis, Wolfgang and Jordan, A. Rainer
Year: 2020
Title: Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors
Journal: Clinical Oral Investigations
Volume: 24
Issue: 11
Pages: 3997-4003
Date: Nov
Short Title: Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors
Alternate Journal: Clin Oral Investig
ISSN: 1436-3771 (Electronic)
1432-6981 (Linking)
DOI: 10.1007/s00784-020-03265-w
PMCID: PMC7544707
Accession Number: 32246279
Keywords: Cross-sectional study
Demography
Epidemiology
Prediction model
Tooth loss
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: This is the second part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of edentulism in seniors 1997-2014, assess predictive factors for edentulism, and projected it into 2030. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used data from three waves of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative German Oral Health Studies. Overall, 3449 seniors (65-74 years) were included (1997: 1367; 2005: 1040; 2016: 1042). Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were entered into age-cohort binary-logistic regression models to assess the association of predictors with edentulism and to project edentulism in 2030 via Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2014, the prevalence of edentulism decreased from 24.8 to 12.4%. With each year of age, the risk of being edentate increased (by 11%, p < 0.001); it was also significantly increased in female versus male (by 40%, p = 0.001), low versus medium and high educational level (up to 257%, p < 0.001), and in former and current smokers (up to 258%, p < 0.001). We predict the prevalence of edentulism to be reduced to 4.2% in 2030. The reduction will be higher in males, never and former smokers, and those with low socio-educational level. On an absolute level and despite a growing elderly population (aged 60-80 years), the number of edentate individuals will have decreased by 3.6 million in 2030 compared with 1997. CONCLUSIONS: Edentulism in seniors has declined equitably in Germany. The decline is expected to continue until 2030. Further efforts are needed to tackle the underlying risk factors. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study presents trends of edentulism in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.
Notes: Schwendicke, Falk
Nitschke, Ina
Stark, Helmut
Micheelis, Wolfgang
Jordan, Rainer A
eng
Germany
2020/04/05 06:00
Clin Oral Investig. 2020 Nov;24(11):3997-4003. doi: 10.1007/s00784-020-03265-w. Epub 2020 Apr 3.
URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32246279

'File' Attachments: internal-pdf://3340089448/Schwendicke2020_Article_EpidemiologicalTrendsP.pdf
Author Address: Department of Operative and Preventive Dentistry, Charite - Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Assmannshauser Str. 4-6, 14197, Berlin, Germany. falk.schwendicke@charite.de.
Clinic for General, Special Care and Geriatric Dentistry, Center of Dental Medicine, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Prosthodontics, Preclinical Education and Dental Materials Science, Rheinische Friedrich Wilhelms University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Institute of German Dentists (IDZ), Cologne, Germany.