TY - JOUR AB - AIM: To develop models for periodontitis using self-reported questions and to validate them externally. METHODS: The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-0) was used for model development. Periodontitis was defined according to the definitions of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology, the 5th European Workshop in Periodontology, and Dietrich et al. (>/=2 teeth with inter-proximal clinical attachment loss of >/=4 mm and 6 mm as moderate and severe periodontitis) respectively. These models were validated in SHIP-Trend and the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV). RESULTS: Final models included age, gender, education, smoking, bleeding on brushing and self-reported presence of mobile teeth. Concordance-statistics (C-statistics) of the final models from SHIP-0 were 0.84, 0.82 and 0.85 for the three definitions respectively. Validation in SHIP-Trend revealed C-statistics of 0.82, 0.81 and 0.82 respectively. As bleeding on brushing and presence of mobile teeth were unavailable in DMS IV, reduced models were developed. C-statistics of reduced models were 0.82, 0.81 and 0.83 respectively. Validation in DMS IV revealed C-statistics of 0.72, 0.78 and 0.72 for the three definitions respectively. All p values of the goodness-of-fit tests were >0.05. CONCLUSIONS: The models yielded a moderate usefulness for prediction of periodontitis. AD - Unit of Periodontology, University Medicine, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. AN - 24313816 AU - Zhan, Yiqiang AU - Holtfreter, Birte AU - Meisel, Peter AU - Hoffmann, Thomas AU - Micheelis, Wolfgang AU - Dietrich, Thomas AU - Kocher, Thomas DA - Mar DO - 10.1111/jcpe.12208 IS - 3 J2 - J Clin Periodontol KW - External validation Periodontitis Self-reported measures Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) The Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV) L1 - internal-pdf://3723953653/Zhan-2014-Prediction of periodontal disease_ m.pdf N1 - Zhan, Yiqiang Holtfreter, Birte Meisel, Peter Hoffmann, Thomas Micheelis, Wolfgang Dietrich, Thomas Kocher, Thomas eng Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't 2013/12/10 06:00 J Clin Periodontol. 2014 Mar;41(3):224-31. doi: 10.1111/jcpe.12208. Epub 2014 Jan 5. PY - 2014 SN - 1600-051X (Electronic) 0303-6979 (Linking) SP - 224-231 ST - Prediction of periodontal disease: modelling and validation in different general German populations T2 - Journal of Clinical Periodontology TI - Prediction of periodontal disease: modelling and validation in different general German populations UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24313816 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jcpe.12208/full VL - 41 ID - 450 ER -