Gesundheitsversorgungsforschung und -epidemiologie
Autoren
Schwendicke, Falk
Krois, Joachim
Jordan, A. Rainer
Schlagwörter
Access to care
Dental public Health
Epidemiology
Health services Research
Mathematical modeling
Publikation — Zeitschriftenbeiträge
Titel
Can We Predict Usage of Dental Services?
Untertitel
An Analysis from Germany 2000 to 2015
Titel kurz
JDR Clin Trans Res
Titel Ausgeschrieben
JDR Clinical & Translational Research
ISSN
2380-0844 (print), 2380-0852 (online)
Jahr
2020
Ausgabe
5
Issue
4
Seitenzahl
349-357
Erscheinungsdatum
01.10.2020
Can We Predict Usage of Dental Services?
An Analysis from Germany 2000 to 2015
Objectives: We aimed to predict the usage of dental services in Germany from 2000 to 2015 based on epidemiologic and demographic data, and to compare these predictions against claims within the statutory health insurance.
Methods: Indicators for operative (number of coronally decayed or filled teeth, root surface caries lesions, and fillings), prosthetic (number of missing teeth), and periodontal treatment needs (number of teeth with probing pocket depths (PPDs) ≥ 4 mm) from nationally representative German Oral Health Studies (1997, 2005, 2014) were cross-sectionally interpolated across age and time, and combined with year- and age-specific population estimates. These, as well as the number of children eligible for individual preventive services (aged 6 to 17 y), were adjusted for age- and time-specific insurance status and services’ utilization to yield predicted usage of operative, prosthetic, periodontal, and preventive services. Cumulative annual usage in these 4 services groups were compared against aggregations of a total of 24 claims positions from the statutory German health insurance.
Results: Morbidity, utilization, and demography were highly dynamic across age groups and over time. Despite improvements of individual oral health, predicted usage of dental services did not decrease over time, but increased mainly due to usage shifts from younger (shrinking) to older (growing) age groups. Predicted usage of operative services increased between 2000 and 2015 (from 52 million to 56 million, +7.8%); predictions largely agreed with claimed services (root mean square error [RMSE] 1.9 million services, error range −4.6/+3.8%). Prosthetic services increased (from 2.4 million to 2.6 million, +11.9%), with near perfect agreement to claimed data [RMSE 0.1 million services, error range −8.3/+3.9%]). Periodontal services also increased (from 21 million to 27 million, +25.9%; RMSE 5.2 million services, error range +21.9/+36.5%), as did preventive services (from 22 million to 27 million, +20.4%; RMSE 3 million, error range −13.7/−4.7%).
Conclusion: Predicting dental services seems viable when accounting for the joint dynamics of morbidity, utilization, and demographics.
Knowledge Transfer Statement: Based on epidemiologic and demographic data, predicting usage of certain dental services is viable when accounting for the dynamics of morbidity, utilization, and demographics.
Verwandte Publikationen
Caries status in 12-year- old children, geographical location and socioeconomic conditions across European countries
Mundgesundheit bei Senioren und Seniorinnen in Deutschland bis 2030 – Prognosen aus der DMS V
Mundgesundheitsziele für Deutschland 2030: Karies und Parodontitis weiter reduzieren sowie Prävention verbessern
„Wir untersuchen ingesamt 670 Kinder“
Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997–2030:
Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997–2030:
Trends in caries experience in the permanent dentition in Germany 1997–2014, and projection to 2030
Root caries experience in Germany 1997 to 2014
More teeth in more elderly
„Versorgungsforschung muss besser an den Hochschulen verankert werden“
Caries-Preventive Effect of Salt Fluoridation in Preschool Children in The Gambia
Krankheitslasten verschieben sich ins höhere Lebensalter
Update zu Parodontalerkrankungen in Deutschland 2014
Wie nachhaltig sind Individual- und Gruppenprophylaxe?
Estimating spatially specific demand and supply of dental services
Estimating future dental services' demand and supply
Früh einsetzende Prävention wirkt nachhaltig
Das Institut der Deutschen Zahnärzte (IDZ)
Versorgungsforschung in der Zahnmedizin
Changes in prevalence of periodontitis in two German population-based studies
The Fifth German Oral Health Study (Fünfte Deutsche Mundgesundheitsstudie, DMS V)
Zahnmedizinische Versorgungsforschung in Deutschland
Prediction of periodontal disease
Change in FS-T index in adults in the German national oral health surveys between 1989 and 2005
Trends in dental health of 35- to 44-year-olds in West and East Germany after reunification
Nachfragemuster von GKV- und PKV-Versicherten nach zahnärztlicher Untersuchung
Changes in problem-based and routine-based healthcare attendance
Social gradients and cumulative effects of income and education on dental health in the Fourth German Oral Health Study
Die Versorgung kariöser Defekte mit verschiedenen Füllungsmaterialien in Deutschland
Prevalence of periodontal disease and treatment demands based on a German dental survey (DMS IV)
More to learn about: periodontitis related knowledge and its relationship with periodontal health behaviour
Oral health in German children, adolescents, adults and senior citizens in 2005
Zur epidemiologischen Einschätzung der Parodontitislast in Deutschland
Bei der Kariesprophylaxe ist eine Gesamtstrategie wichtig
Nachfrage zahnprothetischer Leistungen unter Berücksichtigung sozioökonomischer Einflussgrößen
